THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE ON STOCK MARKET:EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM US

Abstract

The analysis of this research focuses on the interactive relationship among the fluctuation of crude oil prices, the real GDP and the stock market of United State. This empirical investigation uses data is in between 1990 and 2018 with the Vector Auto-regression (VAR) analysis, and multiple regressions with its assumption were used in order to analyses data. 

Findings, oil price and economic growth are very important determinates of stock market in US because the p-value of this were less than the common alpha α =0.05. For instance, the crude oil price had positive impact on stock market because for each unit increasing of crude oil price, the stock market will increase by (0.276901) after holding all other variable constant. However, we find that GDP has negative impact on the participations of increasing the stock market.